According to Grant Montgomery, Managing Director of the E.L Group, the December 2023 EL Index on executive employtment shows that “middle Australia is paying a big price for our inflation” and Australia is “in contrast to other countries on interest rates”.

“As we have been predicting for some time the employment market, particularly for middle Australian executive positions, is dour and getting worse. This month it is just about in free fall,” warns Montgomery.

“It’s the largest fall in jobs in 6 months after continual declines for the last financial year. The level of executive demand fell by 11 per cent in November.

“Unfortunately this executive job sector is the part of society most affected by the rising interest rates.

“They are middle Australia who mostly have an office job designated “executive” and could be working in either the government or private sector.

“This group is most likely to have a mortgage and be heavily impacted by RBA interest rate increases.

“These people are most likely to be on a salary with little flexibility - like being able to get overtime or work two jobs.

“They bear the full brunt of the RBA interest rates and now from the falling E.L index it is evident it will get harder and harder for them to get jobs.

“Best advice right now is if you have a job stay put,” advises Montgomery, noting that “remembering that the E.L Index is a lead index - it shows trends before they show up elsewhere - we are probably going to see some recessionary trends with higher unemployment occurring about March 2024 onwards.

“There is little doubt that Christmas spending will be reduced this year.

“The cash rate now sits at 4.35 per cent after the RBA held last month’s rate and there will be no change until February 2024 when the board meets again. Hopefully the cost of mortgages will finally create enough pressure on inflation to stop Governor Bullock pushing rates up again in the new year.

“The RBA is aiming to have inflation around 2 to 3 percent but doesn’t think inflation will come into this target band until the end of 2025.

“On the positive side, interest rates in Europe and the US seem to be on a decline, and this trend could start to flow on here as prices on energy like oil decline,” Montgomery concluded.

The EL Index shows that in November, among the states the results were mostly lower - and the only higher states/ territories were Tasmania and the ACT, while New South Wales and Victoria were sharply lower, with Western Australia and Queensland also lower.

And demand decreased across all executive sectors during the month, particularly Financial, Management and Information Technology, with web-based private sector results particularly on the decline.