GlobalData’s New Zealand Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q2-2024) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 1.8% CAGR over the forecast period owing to the increasing consumer preference for over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, and the decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels with telcos offering unlimited voice minutes with their mobile service plans.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2024 and 2029 driven by the steady growth in the consumption of mobile data services over 4G/5G networks, and most importantly increasing adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G services.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 7.6GB in 2024 to 13.7GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back data-centric packages offered by telcos.”

4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2029 as operators continue to upgrade and expand their LTE networks. 5G subscriptions, however, are estimated to increase at the fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to account for about 46% of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2029 as operators accelerate their 5G rollouts to more locations in the country.

For example, as of July 2024, Spark 5G network coverage spans 103 locations in New Zealand, with further plans to extend connectivity to all towns with a population exceeding 1,500 by 2026.

Mahananda concludes: “One New Zealand will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029, given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network developments and expansion across the country and its various affordable prepaid and postpaid plans with unlimited calls and data.”